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This post is for tracking purposes only, sharing a high-level summary of plays without diving into the detailed data and methodology behind these predictions. Everyone should conduct their own research before risking hard-earned money.

Only going to post best plays going forward. If anyone is interested in leans or parlays, reply to the post.


Summary of Best Bets:
  • Tyrese Maxey Over 29.5 Points (-105)
  • De'Andre Hunter Over 17.5 Points (-110)
Best Bets Record: 5-2



Game Previews and Injury Reports
Matchup: Los Angeles Lakers @ Philadelphia 76ers
Spread: 76ers -4 (-110) | Lakers +4 (-110)
Total: 218 (Over -110, Under -110)
Moneyline: 76ers -175 | Lakers +145
Injury Report:

Lakers
:
  • Gabe Vincent (Out) – Knee
  • Rui Hachimura (Out) – Calf
  • Christian Wood (Out) – Knee
  • Jalen Hood-Schifino (Out) – Hamstring
76ers:
  • Joel Embiid (Out) – Knee
  • Paul George (Out) – Finger
  • Andre Drummond (Out) – Toe
  • Caleb Martin (Out) – Hip
  • Guerschon Yabusele (Probable) – Knee
Impact of Injuries:
  • Embiid and George’s absence places heavy scoring responsibilities on Tyrese Maxey and Kelly Oubre Jr., increasing their expected usage rates.
  • The Lakers’ weakened frontcourt (Hachimura, Wood out) bolsters Anthony Davis’ dominance in the paint for rebounds and scoring opportunities.
  • A shallower Lakers bench limits their depth in close games, further favoring the 76ers in high-leverage situations.


Best Bets:
Tyrese Maxey Over 29.5 Points (-105) Confidence
: 96%

Reasoning
:
  • Usage Rate: Without Embiid and George, Maxey has dominated offensively, averaging 32.2 points per game over the last 5 games in similar scenarios.
  • Matchup Advantage: The Lakers rank in the bottom 10 for defending dynamic guards, and Maxey thrives in fast-paced matchups.
  • Recent Trends: Maxey has exceeded 29.5 points in 4 of his last 5 games.




Game Previews and Injury Reports

Matchup: Atlanta Hawks @ Houston Rockets
Spread: Hawks -6 (-110) | Rockets +6 (-110)
Total: 227 (Over -110, Under -110)
Moneyline: Hawks -230 | Rockets +180
Injury Report:

Atlanta Hawks
:
  • Trae Young (PG) – Questionable (hamstring)
  • Cody Zeller (C) – Out
  • Jalen Johnson (SF) – Out
  • Kobe Bufkin (G) – Out (season-ending)
Houston Rockets:
  • Cam Whitmore (F) – Questionable (illness)
  • Tari Eason (F) – Out (rest)
  • Jabari Smith Jr. (PF) – Out (fractured hand

Best Bet:

De'Andre Hunter Over 17.5 Points (-110) Confidence:
96%

Reasoning:
  • Increased Usage: With Trae Young potentially out and Jalen Johnson confirmed as unavailable, Hunter’s role becomes pivotal in Atlanta's offensive strategy. Historically, his usage rate increases by +6.2% when Young is sidelined.
  • Recent Form: Hunter has an average of 19.3 PPG over his last 5 games, exceeding this line in 4 of those contests.
  • Houston’s Defensive Weakness: The Rockets rank 24th in defensive efficiency against opposing small forwards and lack key interior defenders (Jabari Smith Jr. and Tari Eason), leaving Hunter with favorable matchups.
  • Game Context: A fast-paced game and a total line of 227 suggest additional scoring opportunities.

Key Metrics and Analysis:
  • Increased Usage:
  • Trae Young's Potential Absence: With Trae Young listed as questionable, the Hawks will rely heavily on Hunter to contribute offensively. Historically, when Young misses games, Hunter sees an average usage rate increase of +6.2%.
  • Jalen Johnson Out: Johnson’s absence further opens up shot opportunities for Hunter, especially from mid-range and spot-up plays.
  • Performance Trends:
  • Recent Scoring: Over the past 5 games, Hunter has averaged 19.3 PPG, exceeding tonight’s line of 17.5 points in 4 of those contests.
  • High-Volume Matchups: In games where Hunter's usage exceeds 22% (projected tonight), he has cleared 17.5 points in 77% of contests this season.
  • Matchup Advantage:
  • Houston's Weak Defense: The Rockets rank 24th in defensive efficiency against opposing small forwards. They allow +2.8 points above average to players in this role.
  • Interior Scoring Opportunities: Without Jabari Smith Jr. and Tari Eason, Houston lacks size and rim protection, leaving Hunter with easier access to the paint and mid-range shots.
  • Pace and Game Context:
  • High Pace: Both the Hawks and Rockets rank in the top 12 for pace, creating additional possessions and scoring opportunities.
  • Projected Game Total: With a total line of 227, bookmakers are expecting an above-average scoring game, aligning with Hunter’s elevated role.
  • Shot Profile and Efficiency:
  • Hunter’s shot profile is balanced, with 40% of his shots coming from the mid-range and 30% from three-point range, areas where Houston has shown defensive vulnerabilities.
  • Shooting Form: Over the last 5 games, Hunter is shooting 48.7% from the field and 38.5% from three, demonstrating strong efficiency.
 

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Game Previews and Injury Reports
Matchup:
Utah Jazz @ Golden State Warriors
Spread: Warriors -12.5 (-115) | Jazz +12.5 (-105)
Total: 227.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Moneyline: Warriors -750 | Jazz +500

Injury Report:

Golden State Warriors:
  • Draymond Green (PF): Out – Left calf strain. Progressing well but not available for this game.
  • Jonathan Kuminga (PF): Out – Ankle injury, re-evaluated in two weeks.
Utah Jazz:
  • Walker Kessler (C): Out – Shoulder injury.
  • John Collins (PF): Out – Illness.
  • Johnny Juzang (G): Out – Hand injury.
  • Cody Williams (F): Out – Ankle injury.
  • Taylor Hendricks (F): Out – Long-term injury (leg/ankle).

Best Bet:

Stephen Curry Over 31.5 Points + Assists (-115)
Confidence Level:
96%

Reasoning:

  1. Increased Usage:
    • With Draymond Green out, Curry will assume a greater role as both a scorer and facilitator. Draymond’s absence removes a key playmaker, leading to Curry’s increased responsibility in initiating offense.
    • Jonathan Kuminga’s absence further reduces the Warriors’ frontcourt scoring depth, increasing Curry’s necessity to shoulder the load.
  2. Matchup Advantage:
    • Weak Jazz Defense: Utah’s defensive efficiency ranks 26th in the league, and they are particularly weak against elite guards.
    • Without Walker Kessler, Utah’s rim protection is severely compromised. This allows Curry more opportunities to drive and score in the paint.
  3. Historical Performance Trends:
    • Curry has exceeded 31.5 Points + Assists in 5 of his last 6 games when Draymond Green is out.
    • Against teams with poor perimeter defense like Utah (without Collins), Curry averages 33.8 Points + Assists this season.
  4. Pace and Scoring Opportunities:
    • Utah’s pace increases when key defenders are out, leading to more possessions and scoring opportunities.
    • The total line of 227.5 points suggests a high-scoring game, providing Curry with ample opportunities to hit this line.

Key Metrics and Analysis:

  1. Projected Scoring:
    • Curry’s projected points total is 29-32, given his elevated usage rate and Utah’s inability to defend elite guards.
    • His three-point attempts are expected to exceed 12 shots, with a conversion rate near 40%, further aiding his scoring chances.
  2. Projected Assists:
    • With Green sidelined, Curry is expected to generate 7-9 assists, as he takes on primary playmaking duties. This will be bolstered by his pick-and-roll opportunities with Andrew Wiggins and Trayce Jackson-Davis against Utah’s depleted frontcourt.
  3. Defensive Weakness Exploitation:
    • Utah allows opposing guards to exceed their season averages in both points (+2.5) and assists (+1.8).
    • Without Kessler and Collins, Utah’s remaining defenders (Sexton, Clarkson) lack the defensive acumen to contain Curry.
  4. Shooting Form:
    • Curry’s shooting splits over the last 5 games: 48.5% FG, 40.2% 3PT, and 92.5% FT, indicating strong efficiency heading into this matchup.
 

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Game Previews and Injury Reports​

Matchup: Portland Trail Blazers @ Milwaukee Bucks
Spread: Bucks -5.5 (-115) | Blazers +5.5 (-105)
Total: 229 (Over -110, Under -110)
Moneyline: Bucks -230 | Blazers +180

Injury Report:
Milwaukee Bucks:
  • Bobby Portis (PF): Out – Personal reasons. His absence impacts the Bucks' rebounding depth.
  • A.J. Green (SG): Out – Quad injury. Minimal offensive impact but reduces rotation options.
  • Tyler Smith (PF): Out – Illness. No major rotation impact due to rookie status.
Portland Trail Blazers:
  • Deandre Ayton (C): Questionable – Knee. If out, the Blazers' interior defense will weaken significantly.
  • Matisse Thybulle (SG): Out – Long-term injury. Reduces perimeter defense strength.

Best Bet:​

Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 44.5 Points + Rebounds (-115) Confidence Level: 97%


Reasoning:​

Increased Usage

  • With Bobby Portis out, Giannis will absorb additional rebounding responsibilities. Historically, he adds +1.8 rebounds per game when Portis is unavailable.
  • In games against teams with poor interior defense (like Portland), Giannis averages 35+ points and 12+ rebounds.

Matchup Advantage

  • Portland ranks 25th in opponent points in the paint, allowing dominant interior scorers to thrive.
  • If Deandre Ayton is ruled out, Portland's lack of rim protection leaves Giannis with a clear path to dominate in the paint.

Historical Trends

  • Giannis has exceeded 44.5 Points + Rebounds in 4 of his last 5 games, averaging 33 points and 14 rebounds in this stretch.
  • In matchups where the Bucks are favored by 5+ points, Giannis averages 34.6 points and 13.2 rebounds, clearing this line comfortably.

Game Flow Considerations

  • The 5.5-point spread suggests a competitive game, which ensures Giannis will play full minutes.
  • The projected fast-paced game (Over/Under at 229) creates ample scoring and rebounding opportunities.

Key Metrics and Analysis

  • Projected Scoring: Giannis is expected to score 31-34 points, driven by his elite efficiency and dominance in transition.
  • Projected Rebounding: With Portland’s rebounding struggles, Giannis is projected for 13-15 rebounds, particularly in a game where second-chance opportunities are likely.
  • Defensive Mismatches: Portland’s primary defenders (Jerami Grant, Toumani Camara) lack the size and strength to contain Giannis in isolation or transition.

Low Variance Bet

  • Even in games with wide spreads, Giannis’s dual scoring and rebounding production remain consistent due to his central role in Milwaukee’s system.
  • This bet provides the highest reliability among all analyzed props, with a high floor and ceiling based on the matchup.
 

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Summary of Best Bets:
  • Tyrese Maxey Over 29.5 Points (-105)
  • De'Andre Hunter Over 17.5 Points (-110)
  • Stephen Curry Over 31.5 Points + Assists (-115)
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 44.5 Points + Rebounds (-115)
Best Bets Record: 5-2

BOL!
 

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  • Tyrese Maxey Over 29.5 Points (-105) - WIN Scored 43 Points
  • De'Andre Hunter Over 17.5 Points (-110) - LOSS Scored 16
  • Stephen Curry Over 31.5 Points + Assists (-115) - Void. Ruled out.
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 44.5 Points + Rebounds (-115) - WIN Scored 51

Best Bets Record: 7-3
 

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